Friday, April 8, 2016

This is what could create some turbulence Friday

  Fed officials from different camps speak ahead of Friday's Wall Street open, and they could make some waves in already seasick markets.

Market nerves are starting to get a little frayed right now. You can see it in the risk markets  there's potential (for market impact). What's been interesting to me is you've had a parade of Fed officials some of whom are extremely dovish, and they've been a whole lot less pessimistic and a lot less dovish than (Fed Chair) Janet Yellen, since the last meeting."
Speaking on Friday is New York Fed President William Dudley, who is seen as closely aligned with Yellen — in the dove camp. He speaks at 8:30 a.m. EDT on the regional and national economy in Connecticut. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker gives remarks at an investment conference in Camden, New Jersey, at 9 a.m. EDT, and he has recently called for the central bank to get on with rate hikes. Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan speaks later on the political economy of Texas and Mexico at 9:30 a.m. EDT.
Unfortunately they seem in muddled message mode right now,. Markets will also digest the comments of more hawkish Kansas City Fed President Esther George, who was to speak Thursday evening. George is the one member who dissented at the last central bank meeting, when it voted to keep rates unchanged.
There will also be comments to consider from Yellen herself, plus her last three predecessors, at an unprecedented panel discussion Thursday evening. 
Yellen said Thursday that the U.S. economy is strong and said it is not a bubble economy. She reiterated that the Fed is taking a cautious approach on raising rates and said the Fed's rate hike in December was not a mistake.
Her comments Thursday evening were viewed as more optimistic than in her appearance last week, and they helped support risk markets, including oil. Now the question is which way will the next speakers lean



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